Wintermute Analysis: Bitcoin risks falling into the $50,000 zone despite a rebound
The Bitcoin market is going through a difficult period. Despite a recent bounce from the $60,000 level, leading analysts at market maker Wintermute warn that the bottom could be significantly deeper. In their latest analysis, they suggest BTC could fall to the $50,000 range, arguing that the current attractive risk-reward ratio is no guarantee that the worst is over.
What triggered the short-term bounce?
Last week, Bitcoin broke its prolonged four-week losing streak, bouncing from the $60,000 zone back to levels above $65,000. This momentum was supported by two key factors that worked in synergy for the first time in a long while.
The first was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.2%, matching market expectations. The key point was that debt market participants had feared a higher reading, and its non-confirmation relieved some pressure. Moreover, core inflation slowed to 2.9%, signaling that the peak of the energy impulse has passed.
The second, and more significant factor, was the de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. The parties announced a preliminary deal to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade. The formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil collapsed from nearly $110 to levels above $80 over the past month, losing 6.6% in the last week alone.
The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium pulled down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves the inflation outlook, so the CPI data and the cessation of the conflict this week did not cancel each other out but rather amplified one another. Wintermute identifies the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership on June 17 as the next catalyst.
Why hasn't the bottom been reached yet?
The main question, according to analysts, is when the market will turn around. The answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity flowing through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). Currently, none of these channels show a reversal.
Assets under management of DAT companies have shrunk from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and new capital raising beyond Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has virtually ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, while inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory.
Wintermute recalls how the last cycle began: real growth started with the approval of ETFs in early 2024 and the subsequent capital inflow. Now, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are busy trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until a reversal in capital flows occurs, it is premature to declare that a bottom has been reached.
The analysts' main advice is to watch capital flows, not price or headlines. The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. Nevertheless, experts do not rule out that Bitcoin could drop to the $50,000 zone before the situation improves.
My expert commentary: The market is in a "weak hands washout" phase. A drop to $50,000 is not a catastrophe but a natural process of redistributing the asset from short-term speculators to long-term holders. I recommend that investors with a 12-month horizon view current levels as an accumulation zone, but with mandatory risk control. The key signal for entry is the resumption of net inflows into spot ETFs and growth in stablecoin issuance.