Ethereum whales have bought ETH worth $950 million: indicators point to a bottom formation
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has bounced 22% from its June low, holding above a key trendline for institutional investors. This rise coincided with renewed inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had been recording outflows for weeks. However, despite the positive momentum, the market is not yet ready to definitively declare a bottom.
Large holders, known as "whales," continued to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency even during the downturn. According to fresh on-chain data, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. This means they purchased coins worth a total of approximately $950 million over the week. Such behavior indicates confidence among major players in the asset's long-term potential and their willingness to ignore local price fluctuations.
Spot ETFs: A Reversal After a Painful Streak
A significant signal was the resumption of net inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs. After a prolonged series of outflows lasting from May 11 to June 12, on June 15, the funds recorded an inflow of $22.5 million. This positive result broke an extremely painful period when capital was leaving almost daily, except for just two trading sessions. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, the funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
Notably, the resumption of inflows coincided with the price holding above the monthly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) line. Previously, in April and May, similar breakouts of this indicator also led to short-term gains: by 19% and 7%, respectively. However, each time, a few days after the breakout, capital inflows into ETFs resumed. This correlation, while not guaranteeing a direct causal link, deserves close attention from investors.
Signs of Capitulation Fade, But Risks Remain
In parallel with whale accumulation, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass market panic subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local bottom. It was then that the net change in positions on exchanges turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. Such behavior indicates the transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. As a result, a shortage of sellers formed in the market, which usually heralds an imminent trend change.
Analysts at Swissblock noted in their report that Ethereum had been in a phase of capitulation for a long time. This state of strong market pressure often precedes a powerful reversal in quotes. The current reduction in exchange balances confirms that the acute phase of selling appears to be truly behind us.
Key Levels and Hidden Danger
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at the $1,705 level. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
However, the overall picture is significantly marred by the situation in the derivatives market. Total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are witnessing the opposite process — open interest is rising along with the price. This indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward move.
If a decline begins, the first support level will be $1,624, with the critical point being the low at $1,507. A daily close below this mark would force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident break above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.
My expert opinion: Whale accumulation of $950 million and the resumption of ETF inflows are powerful bullish signals. However, the current growth against a backdrop of record-high open interest in futures creates an extremely fragile structure. The market is overheated with leverage, and any negative trigger could provoke a sharp correction. A true bottom will only be confirmed after a complete "flush" of excess longs and a confident breakout above the $1,851 level.