Geopolitical détente in the Strait of Hormuz: why the return of tankers will take weeks and how it will affect bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement shedding light on the real timeline for normalizing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, even after the signing of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the return of ships to their usual routes will not be immediate. This process could take from several weeks to a month.
Jotaro Tamura, CEO of MOL, emphasized that shipowners will not rush to return to the conflict zone. The experience of recent months, where announcements were followed by setbacks, has taught operators caution. He noted that any signed agreement must be real and backed by facts—only then will shipping companies feel fully secure again. Consequently, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to an entire month.
Reality vs. Declarations: What Is Happening in the Strait
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined. MOL, which manages over 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four of its tankers from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven of the company's ships are still awaiting passage clearance.
Nevertheless, the first signs of recovery are already visible. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten ships under the Indian flag and five foreign vessels have crossed the strait. However, the speed of traffic restoration will directly depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe shipping reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This, in turn, leads to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift to growth mode, lowering investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including bitcoin.
As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows favoring stocks and commodities. However, it is worth remembering that this is only a short-term factor. In the long term, a reduction in the geopolitical premium in energy prices is a positive signal for the global economy, which will ultimately support digital assets as well.