The Strait of Hormuz: Why the return of tankers will take weeks and how it will affect bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made an important statement: shipowners will not immediately return to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even after the agreement between the US and Iran, this process will take several weeks.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel completely safe again. According to his estimates, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month, given the experience of recent months when operators learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions.
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war, stressing that a signed agreement between the countries is not enough — real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only if they are met will shipowners decide to return to the route.
MOL has more than 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance. Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones crossed the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of restoring traffic along the route will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor.
What this means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe shipping reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. In such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
My expert opinion: Although de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is a positive signal for the global economy, for Bitcoin it is more of a short-term neutral factor. The key driver for the first cryptocurrency remains the same — the macroeconomic policy of the Federal Reserve and institutional demand. The geopolitical premium built into the BTC price may partially decrease, but the fundamental trend toward de-dollarization and risk hedging will not disappear.