The Strait of Hormuz: why tankers are in no hurry to return and how this will impact Bitcoin
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are gradually easing, but shipping companies are not ready to immediately return to this route. The head of the world's largest tanker operator, Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), Jotaro Tamura, warned: even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, the process of restoring traffic will take from several weeks to a month. This statement is directly relevant not only to global energy markets but also to Bitcoin dynamics.
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply, and according to Tamura, operators have learned caution. "Given the experience of the last couple of months, it is reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he emphasized. For MOL, which operates more than 900 vessels, this issue is particularly acute: the company has already withdrawn four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran, and at least seven more are awaiting permission to pass.
A real agreement is a key factor
Tamura emphasizes that simply signing agreements is not enough. Shipowners need real, tangible security guarantees in the strait. Only when these conditions are met will they decide to return to the route. Meanwhile, the first signs of revival are already emerging: the Indian gas carrier Disha, with 62,370 tons of gas on board, became the first Indian-flagged vessel to pass through the strait after the agreement. In total, according to official data, ten Indian-flagged vessels and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement itself is expected on Friday in Geneva, and the speed of traffic restoration will directly depend on the level of trust shipowners have in the new corridor.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
The resumption of safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a powerful disinflationary signal for the global economy. Reducing logistical risks and stabilizing energy supplies lead to a decline in inflation expectations. In such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for safe-haven alternative assets, including Bitcoin.
As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities. Investors who sought refuge in Bitcoin amid geopolitical uncertainty will begin to shift into more traditional "risk-on" assets.
My analysis: A short-term capital outflow from BTC into traditional assets is a natural market reaction to a reduction in the geopolitical premium. However, Bitcoin's fundamental drivers, such as institutional adoption and the halving, remain in force. Any correction against this backdrop will be temporary and can be used to build positions.