Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million worth of ETH: a signal for a reversal or a trap?
The Ethereum market is showing signs of recovery after a deep decline in June. The price of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has rebounded 22% from the local low recorded in mid-month and managed to hold above a key trend line closely watched by institutional investors.
My on-chain data analysis shows that large holders — so-called whales — were actively increasing their positions even during the height of the decline, a classic sign of accumulation. Over the past week, the balances of wallets containing between 1 million and 10 million ETH have risen from 124.85 million to 125.4 million coins. At the current price, this is equivalent to purchases worth approximately $950 million.
At the same time, key on-chain metrics indicate seller exhaustion. The net position indicator on exchanges has turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms to cold wallets. Such behavior typically precedes a trend reversal.
Institutional Demand Returns
An important catalyst for the current recovery has been the resumption of capital inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs. After a prolonged series of outflows lasting from May 11 to June 12, net inflows on June 15 amounted to $22.5 million. Although this sum is modest compared to the May spikes ($101 million and $98 million), the fact of a sentiment reversal is extremely significant. Historically, such small inflows have preceded larger rallies.
The total net assets under management of ETFs are now approaching the $10.04 billion mark. If the trend continues, we may witness a repeat of the positive scenario from early May.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels
At the time of writing this analysis, Ethereum is trading near the $1,771 mark, holding above the monthly VWAP line, which stands at $1,705. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close the daily candle above the resistance level of $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
However, the situation is not entirely clear-cut. Total open interest in ETH futures has surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, indicating the dominance of margin traders. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is still premature to declare the end of capitulation.
The first support level during a decline will be $1,624, with the critical point being the June low of $1,507. A daily close below this level would force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident breakout above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.
My expert assessment: The actions of whales and institutions are creating a favorable foundation for a reversal, but the derivatives market remains "overheated." I recommend that investors wait for confirmation of a breakout above the $1,851 level before betting on a sustained upward trend. Until then, any bounce should be viewed as volatility within the broader downward movement.