Wintermute analysts warn: bitcoin could test the $50,000 zone
Despite a recent bounce from the $60,000 level, the Bitcoin (BTC) market has not yet reached its bottom. Leading market maker Wintermute acknowledges the possibility of a further decline down to levels near $50,000. An attractive risk-reward ratio in the long term does not negate short-term risks.
Last week, Bitcoin broke its prolonged four-week losing streak, bouncing from support around $60,000 back above $65,000. This momentum resulted from the coincidence of two significant factors that worked in unison for the first time in a long while.
What catalyzed the bounce?
The first factor was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.2%, the highest since April 2023, but it matched the consensus forecast. The key point was that the market feared higher values, and reality did not meet the "bearish" expectations. Core CPI, meanwhile, slowed to 2.9%, indicating the peak of the energy impulse has passed rather than accelerating further.
The second, more significant factor was the de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. After more than 100 days of confrontation, the parties announced a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade. The official signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil collapsed from $110 to levels above $80 over the past month, losing 6.6% in just one week.
The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium dragged down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves inflation forecasts, so the CPI data and the end of the conflict this week amplified rather than canceled each other out. Wintermute cites the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership on June 17 as the nearest catalyst.
Why hasn't the bottom been reached yet?
The main question, according to analysts, is when the market will turn, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding crypto (DAT). None of them have shown a reversal yet.
Assets under management of DAT companies have fallen from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new capital raising has virtually ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, and inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory.
Wintermute recalled how the last cycle began: real growth started with the approval of ETFs in early 2024 and the capital inflow they brought. Currently, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are busy trading leveraged stocks and funds. Until a reversal occurs, it is premature to declare a bottom.
Wintermute's main advice is to watch capital flows, not price or headlines. The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient holder base. Nevertheless, the company does not rule out that Bitcoin could move into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves.
My professional opinion: The market is in a consolidation phase, and a scenario with a retest of $50,000 looks realistic, especially if liquidity continues to shrink. However, it is precisely such corrections that create the best entry points for long-term investors. The key signal for a reversal is the resumption of net inflows into spot ETFs and an increase in stablecoin volumes on exchanges.