The Strait of Hormuz: tankers are in no hurry to return, and here is how it affects Bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator, made it clear that even after a formal agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not rush to return to the Strait of Hormuz. The process of restoring traffic will take weeks, possibly even a month. This statement is not just a logistical detail, but a powerful signal for global markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
Jotaro Tamura, head of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be "real and backed by facts." Shipowners, having endured a series of deal breakdowns since the conflict began in late February, have become more cautious. They do not take words at face value—they need tangible proof of safety. Until that exists, even documents signed in Geneva do not guarantee an immediate return to previous traffic levels.
Numbers and Facts: The Scale of the Delay
Before the escalation, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Daily traffic has now dropped sharply. MOL, which owns over 900 vessels, has already withdrawn four tankers from the Persian Gulf without paying Iranian fees. At least seven more of the company's ships are awaiting permission to transit.
The Indian gas carrier Disha, transporting 62,370 tons of gas, became the first Indian-flagged vessel to pass through the strait after the agreement. According to official data, a total of ten Indian and five foreign ships have crossed the strait. But this is just a drop in the ocean compared to previous volumes.
What This Means for Bitcoin
Restoring safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz directly reduces global logistical risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This, in turn, leads to a decline in inflation expectations. In such an environment, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including bitcoin.
My analysis: As long as tankers do not fully return to the strait, markets will remain in a state of uncertainty. However, once the recovery process gains momentum, we may see a temporary outflow of capital from cryptocurrencies in favor of stocks and commodities. For bitcoin, this means a potential correction, but not a fundamental trend reversal—the geopolitical premium will simply fade away.