The Strait of Hormuz: the return of tankers will take weeks — and here's how it will affect bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines, the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a significant statement: shipowners will not rush to return to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, this process will take from several weeks to a month.
Jyotaro Tamura, head of the company managing over 900 vessels, emphasized that an announcement of the deal alone is not enough. Shipping companies need real, factually confirmed safety guarantees. "Given the experience of recent months, it is reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least several weeks, if not a month," he noted in his comment.
Reality on the Water: First Steps and Delays
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined. MOL has already withdrawn four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying Iranian fees, and at least seven of its tankers are still awaiting permission to pass.
Nevertheless, the first signs of recovery are emerging. The Indian gas carrier Disha, carrying 62,370 tons of gas on board, became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the announcement of the deal. In total, ten Indian and five foreign vessels have crossed it. However, the pace of recovery will directly depend on how much shipowners trust the new safety corridor.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies. This leads to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for protective alternative assets, including bitcoin.
As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities. However, in my opinion, this is only a short-term factor. Once markets adapt to the new equilibrium, bitcoin will again find its trajectory, supported by macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional demand.