Analysts warn: Bitcoin may test the $50,000 zone
Despite a recent bounce from the $60,000 level and a return above $65,000, Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a high-risk zone. Leading analysts suggest that before a market reversal, we may see the leading cryptocurrency decline to the $50,000 range. An attractive risk-reward ratio in the long term does not mean the bottom has already been reached.
Last week, BTC broke a four-week losing streak, bouncing from the $60,000 zone and returning to levels above $65,000. This momentum was supported by two key factors that, for the first time in a long while, worked in unison.
What Triggered the Bounce
The first catalyst was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 4.2% — the highest since April 2023 and the third consecutive acceleration. However, the figure matched market expectations. In my assessment, this factor was decisive: debt market participants feared a higher reading, which did not materialize. Core inflation meanwhile slowed to 2.9%, indicating the peak of the energy impulse has passed rather than accelerating further.
The second, even more significant factor was the end of the conflict between the US and Iran. After more than 100 days of confrontation, the parties announced a deal, agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade. Formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil collapsed from levels above $110 to above $80 over the past month, losing 6.6% in just one week.
The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, which had weighed on the market since late February, pulled down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves the inflation outlook, so the CPI data and the end of the conflict this week reinforced each other rather than canceling out. I see the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership on June 17 as the nearest catalyst.
Why the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Reached
The main question now is when the market will turn, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). None of them are showing signs of a reversal yet.
Assets under management of DAT companies have fallen from approximately $220 billion to $140 billion, and outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new capital raising has virtually ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, and capital inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory.
Let me remind you how the last cycle began: real growth started with the approval of ETFs in early 2024 and the capital inflows they brought. Now, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are busy trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until a reversal occurs, it is premature to declare the bottom has been reached.
My main advice is to watch capital flows, not price or headlines. The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. Nevertheless, I do not rule out that Bitcoin could move into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves.
Expert opinion: The market is in a "weak hands washout" phase, and a drop to $50,000 would be a logical conclusion to this correction. However, for an aggressive long entry, it is worth waiting for a clear reversal in capital flows — either a resumption of ETF inflows or stabilization of stablecoins. Until then, any attempt to catch the bottom could result in losses.