Bitcoin at risk of falling to $50,000: Wintermute analysis points to an unattained bottom
Despite the recent bounce from the $60,000 zone, the Bitcoin (BTC) market has not yet passed the turning point. Analysts at market maker Wintermute warn: the current risk-reward ratio around $60,000 looks attractive only in the long term, but does not guarantee that the bottom has already been reached. In my estimation, there is a high probability of a decline towards levels near $50,000.
Last week, Bitcoin broke a four-week losing streak, rebounding from $60,000 to levels above $65,000. Support came from two key factors that, for the first time in a long while, worked in sync.
Macroeconomic Momentum and Geopolitical Easing
The first factor is US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May came in at 4.2%, matching expectations, although markets had feared higher readings. Core inflation meanwhile slowed to 2.9%, which, in my view, signals that the peak of the energy impulse has passed rather than accelerating further. This created a positive backdrop for risky assets.
The second, and more significant factor, is the end of the US-Iran conflict. The parties agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade, with the official signing scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Brent crude collapsed from $110 to levels above $80 over the month, losing 6.6% in a week. The decline in the geopolitical premium dragged down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheap oil directly improves the inflation outlook, so the CPI data and the end of the conflict reinforced each other rather than canceling out.
Why the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Reached
The main question, according to Wintermute, is when the market will turn, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding cryptocurrencies (DAT). None of them are turning around yet.
Assets under management of DAT companies have fallen from $220 billion to $140 billion, and the inflow of new capital beyond Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive has virtually ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, while inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory. Retail investors are busy trading stocks and leveraged funds, while institutions remain on the sidelines.
My analysis confirms: until a turnaround occurs, it is premature to declare the bottom has been reached. The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient base of holders. However, I do not rule out that Bitcoin could move into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves. Investors should focus on capital flows, not price or headlines.
My professional opinion: the current correction is not a bear market, but a consolidation phase after aggressive growth. The $50,000 level will be a critical support point, and if liquidity does not return, we could see a deeper decline. However, for long-term investors, such sell-offs represent accumulation opportunities.