Ethereum whales have bought ETH worth $950 million: is a bottom forming or is this a false bounce?
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has made an impressive leap, rebounding 22% from its June low. This rise has allowed the asset to consolidate above the critical VWAP line closely watched by institutional players. Notably, the upward movement coincided with a resumption of capital inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had been recording steady outflows for weeks prior.
Large holders, or "whales," continued to actively accumulate coins even during the height of the decline. According to fresh on-chain data, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have increased from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. This means that in just one week, they acquired coins worth approximately $950 million. Concurrently, metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass market panic subsided around June 7, when the asset found a local bottom. It was then that the net position change indicator on exchanges turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms.
This investor behavior points to the transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. As a result, a seller deficit has formed in the market, which typically heralds an imminent trend change. Analysts at Swissblock noted in their recent Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum had been in a capitulation phase for a long time—a state of strong market pressure that often precedes a powerful price reversal. The current reduction in exchange balances confirms that the acute phase of selling appears to be truly behind us.
However, the overall picture is significantly marred by the situation in the derivatives market. Total open interest in ETH futures has surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are witnessing the opposite process—open interest is rising along with the price. This state of affairs indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is still premature to declare the end of capitulation.
At present, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which sits at the $1,705 level. Since the beginning of June, the coin has gained about 22% from its low of $1,507, but this is still insufficient for a definitive reversal. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close the daily candle above the resistance level of $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
If a decline begins, the first support level will be $1,624, with the critical point being the low of $1,507. A daily close below this mark would force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident break above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary bounce.
Expert opinion: Accumulation by whales and the resumption of ETF inflows are positive signals, but the rising open interest in futures creates a risk of a "short squeeze" in the opposite direction. The market has not yet cleared itself of excess leverage, meaning the current rally could prove unsustainable. Until we see the liquidation of a significant portion of margin positions, any bounce should be viewed with caution.