Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: is a bottom forming for ether?
In mid-June, the Ethereum exchange rate made a sharp rebound from its local low, rising by more than 22%. This move allowed the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization to once again consolidate above the key monthly VWAP line—an indicator closely watched by institutional players. The recovery coincided with a resumption of capital inflows into spot ETFs for ETH, which had previously recorded net capital outflows for several weeks.
Spot ETFs Exit the Outflow Zone
After a painful series of outflows lasting from May 11 to June 12, the situation finally changed. The very next day after ETH consolidated above the VWAP, on June 15, spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $22.5 million. For comparison, volumes at the beginning of May were much more impressive—$101 million and $98 million on the 1st and 5th, respectively. Nevertheless, the trend shift is evident. The total net assets under management of the funds have come close to the $10.04 billion mark. If the market has indeed formed a local bottom, we may witness a repeat of the May scenario, where small inflows grew into a series of successful days.
Whales Didn't Wait for Confirmation
Large holders began actively accumulating coins even before the VWAP breakout. According to data from the analytical platform Santiment, between June 10 and the present, the balances of millionaire wallets increased from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, whales purchased ether worth approximately $950 million. Notably, this occurred against the backdrop of a local price drop—a classic sign of confidence in the long-term outlook.
Simultaneously, on-chain metrics recorded a sharp decline in seller activity. Mass panic subsided around June 7, when the coin found a bottom at the $1,507 level. The Net Position Change indicator moved into negative territory, signaling an outflow of coins from exchanges to cold wallets. Analysts at Swissblock noted in their Altcoin Vector report that Ethereum had been in a capitulation phase for a long time—a state that often precedes a powerful reversal.
Key Levels and Hidden Risks
Currently, ETH is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP of $1,705. To confirm the upward trend, buyers need to close the daily candle above the resistance level of $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range and signal further growth.
However, the main danger lies not in the levels but in the overheated derivatives market. Open interest in ETH futures surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. The rise in leverage alongside the price is a warning sign. This indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is still premature to declare the end of capitulation.
Expert opinion: The current picture resembles a classic bear trap. Whales and institutions are actively buying the dip, but the derivatives market remains extremely vulnerable. Until open interest declines to healthier levels, any rally will be speculative in nature. A true bottom will only form after the complete liquidation of excess credit positions.