Ethereum whales have increased their positions by $950 million: is a bottom forming for ether?
Ethereum (ETH) continues to show signs of recovery, bouncing 22% from its June low. This momentum has allowed prices to consolidate above the key VWAP line, which institutions often use as a dividing line between accumulation and distribution phases. Notably, the rise coincided with renewed capital inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had been recording steady outflows for several weeks prior.
Institutional demand returns
The shift in sentiment occurred quite timely. Just one day after the price consolidated above the VWAP—on June 15—net inflows into spot ETH ETFs reached $22.5 million. This broke a painful streak of outflows that had lasted from May 11 to June 12. For comparison, the situation looked much more optimistic in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
The total net assets under management for ETFs are now approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery in May also began with small amounts, which then grew into a series of successful days. Therefore, if a market bottom is confirmed, we may see a repeat of this positive scenario. However, relying solely on ETF data would be a mistake, as key processes are currently happening directly on-chain.
Whales buy, sellers capitulate
Large holders began accumulating coins even before the chart crossed the VWAP line. According to Santiment data, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have increased from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, they bought coins worth a total of about $950 million. Simultaneously, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local low.
This investor behavior indicates a transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. This trend is supported by large whales, who are quickly buying up any available volumes. As a result, a seller deficit has formed in the market, which usually heralds an imminent trend change.
Key levels for Ethereum
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at $1,705. Since the start of June, the coin has gained about 22% from its low of $1,507, but this is still insufficient for a definitive reversal. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, and at its peak exceeded $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are seeing the opposite process—open interest is rising along with the price. This situation indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than real demand in the spot market.
My expert opinion: Until we see a significant reduction in open interest, any upward movement will be vulnerable to sharp corrections. The true bottom for ether will only form after overloaded longs are completely cleared from the market. Until then, the current bounce risks being another bull trap.