Bitcoin broke through $67,000 amid geopolitical de-escalation, but the derivatives market is signaling distrust
The first cryptocurrency broke through the $67,000 mark during today's trading, reacting to news of a truce between the US and Iran. However, despite the impressive price surge, an in-depth analysis of the derivatives market paints a completely different picture — traders clearly do not believe in the sustainability of this rally.
At the time of writing this review, the asset had corrected to $65,626, down 1.3% over the day. The key warning signal is the annual premium on Bitcoin futures, which has stalled at 2%. For three months now, this indicator has been unable to break through the neutral threshold of 4%, indicating extremely weak interest in long positions from institutions. The situation in the options market is even more telling: put contracts are trading at a 16% premium to call options. This is a classic sign that investors are massively hedging against a crash, expecting a downward move.
The sharp price spike triggered the liquidation of short positions worth $210 million, which became the technical catalyst for the move. Additional support came from an inflow of $86 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, as well as continued accumulation by Strategy. On the macro level, the situation is also favoring risk assets: Brent crude oil fell to a 100-day low, and the Nasdaq index surged 3% amid the successful IPO of SpaceX, whose market capitalization after listing reached $2.6 trillion.
Nevertheless, bearish sentiment persists in the derivatives market. For Bitcoin to confidently consolidate above $70,000, it will require further declines in energy prices and, more importantly, a genuine softening of the Fed's rhetoric. Until this happens, any local growth will be perceived by the market as a bull trap.
Long-Term Accumulation: Light at the End of the Tunnel
On the on-chain front, the picture is much more optimistic. On June 11, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio plummeted to -20. Since 2015, every such drop in this indicator, which measures risk-adjusted returns, has preceded the formation of a price bottom and the start of an accumulation phase. A deeply negative value means the market has experienced a sharp and deep decline, pushing many participants to the point of capitulation.
This signal is fully confirmed by coin movement data. Since February, exchange reserves have decreased by 80,000 BTC, reaching the level of 2.71 million coins. Meanwhile, demand from long-term holders has doubled — in the first half of June alone, accumulation addresses purchased 240,000 BTC. Large players are actively withdrawing liquidity from exchanges, which is one of the strongest bullish signals.
However, it is worth remembering that the asset's price has remained below the 100-week moving average for 133 days, which is currently at the $88,466 level. In past cycles, Bitcoin spent an average of 362 days below this line, with the longest period being 532 days after the 2022 crash. This means that the current consolidation phase could last for several more months, despite active accumulation.
My professional conclusion: The market is in a classic phase of transferring coins from "weak hands" to "strong hands." Short-term positivity in derivatives is absent, but fundamental on-chain data indicates that smart money is already buying. The current growth is more of a technical bounce rather than the start of a new bullish trend. For a sustained upward move, the macroeconomic backdrop and sentiment in the derivatives market need to align with what we are seeing on the chain.