The Strait of Hormuz: tariffs return, oil prepares for a new rally
Oil prices have plummeted to two-month lows after the US and Iran reached an agreement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, beneath this external calm lies deep tension: traders are already pricing in a new wave of instability linked to Iran's plans to charge transit fees.
The key nuance of the deal is a 60-day delay. Iran intends to introduce service fees after the free period ends. Markets reacted instantly: Brent crude crashed by about 5% to $83 per barrel, and WTI to $80. These are the lowest values in recent months.
But the decline reflects only short-term relief regarding supply. The futures curve points to a more cautious sentiment. During the conflict, the Brent market saw sharp backwardation—near-term contracts traded significantly higher than deferred ones. This indicated an acute supply shortage.
In April, the spread between the first and second Brent contracts reached $10.27. Now, this indicator has narrowed to about $0.67. Investors expect the deficit to ease. Nevertheless, the spread remains positive, and prices are not rushing back into contango. The acute shortage of crude has been resolved, but there are no signs of oversupply.
Investor positioning is shifting in the opposite direction. According to the latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC, speculators reduced short positions by about 9,300 contracts as of June 9. Options data for the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) confirms the trend: the put-to-call ratio fell from 0.08 to 0.06 after the news about fees. Call contracts are open by multiples more than puts, and interest in calls is only growing.
Potential Impact of Tariffs on Barrel Prices
Let's move to calculations. Before the conflict began, Brent was worth about $70 with zero transit costs. Approximately 7.6 billion barrels of oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz annually.
Possible scenarios for Iran's annual revenue from tariffs:
- at a fee of $0.50 per barrel — $3.8 billion;
- at a fee of $1 per barrel — $7.6 billion;
- at a fee of $2 per barrel — $15.2 billion.
The $1 level is quite realistic—during the conflict, an unofficial fee of $1 per barrel was indeed charged, and there were also reports of payments up to $2 million per single voyage.
The direct cost of transit to the market is small—these expenses are mostly borne by producers. A much greater effect comes from the risk premium that investors factor in due to supply uncertainty. This premium is currently particularly strong: the global market's safety margin is minimal. For example, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest in 43 years.
Analysts believe that if the market returns to normal around $80, a gradual introduction of the fee would add $2-6 to the cost. A chaotic scenario would push prices up by $10 or more. Thus, Brent could move into a range of $85 to $95. With severe destabilization, quotes would again exceed $100.
It is important to emphasize: the tariff itself of $1 or $2 is not capable of driving Brent to $100. It is precisely disruptions and attempted blockades that lead to such an outcome. If the implementation of the agreement hinders vessel movement, a war premium will return to the market. Recall that during the conflict, it was fear that pushed Brent above $100.
Forecasts and Market Bets Say the Same Thing
Industry leaders have warned about the risk of a rise. At Chevron and ExxonMobil, they stated that the price of Brent could soar to $150-160 if inventories continue to decline. According to the EIA, Brent will average about $105 in June and July, after which prices may fall. Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast amid the deal but warned of the risk of sharp fluctuations if passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored normally.
Even prediction markets confirm this outlook. On Polymarket, participants give about a 16% probability that the oil price will hit a record by December 31—this remains the main scenario among bets, despite some cooling of the situation after the deal.
Currently, oil prices are holding near two-month lows. Brent is trading around $83, and WTI is near $80. The next CFTC report will clearly show whether buyers have managed to maintain their advantage.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The deal on the Strait of Hormuz is not peace, but a truce with a delay. The market is right not to relax. The introduction of tariffs in 60 days is only a matter of time, and the current correction is an ideal entry point for those betting on a return of volatility and oil rising above $90.