Crypto news

Oil prices have collapsed to their lowest levels in the last two months. The reason is the agreement reached between the US and Iran to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, despite the apparent détente, professional market participants are by no means resting on their laurels. Behind the facade of the deal lies a mechanism that could trigger a new wave of volatility.

The Essence of the Deal: A Delay, Not a Cancellation of Fees

The key nuance of the agreement, which has not yet been fully grasped by the general public, is that Iran plans to introduce a fee for passage through the strait 60 days after its opening. This means the current price decline is merely a temporary respite. Markets are already beginning to factor this into the cost of crude for the coming months.

The opening of the Strait of Hormuz restores the transport of about one-fifth of the world's oil volumes. Before the conflict began, this route was completely free for all vessels. Now, Iran has stated its intention to levy service charges after the grace period ends. Donald Trump insists the strait will remain permanently free of fees, but Vice President JD Vance and Iranian authorities are confident that the introduction of fees in 60 days is inevitable.

Market Reaction: Price Decline and Shift in Futures Structure

Markets reacted immediately. The price of Brent fell by approximately 5%, dropping to $83 per barrel, and WTI to $80. These levels are the lowest in several months. The decline reflects only a short-term easing of the supply situation. However, the futures curve indicates a more cautious sentiment among participants.

During the conflict, the Brent market experienced sharp backwardation—a situation where the futures price is lower than the current spot price of the underlying asset. Near-term contracts traded significantly higher than deferred ones, indicating an acute supply shortage. In April, the spread between the first and second Brent contracts reached $10.27. This figure has now narrowed to about $0.67. Investors expect the deficit to ease, but the spread remains positive. Quotes are gradually transitioning to moderate backwardation, not rushing back to contango, where distant contracts are more expensive than near-term ones. The acute shortage of crude has been resolved, but there are no signs of excess supply.

Investor Positioning: Betting on Growth

Investor positioning is moving in the opposite direction. According to the latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC, speculators reduced short positions by approximately 9,300 contracts as of June 9. Options data confirms this trend. On the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), the put-to-call ratio stood at 0.08. Call contracts are open in significantly greater numbers than puts. Moreover, interest in calls is only growing. After the news about the fees, this ratio fell to 0.06.

The BRN2 contract trades with a roughly one-month difference, with the base contract remaining slightly more expensive. The futures curve has noticeably flattened, but it does not show clear signs of a bearish trend. If the fee is indeed introduced, the spread could widen again. The scenario perfectly aligns with the current predominance of bullish positions.

Potential Impact of Fees on Barrel Cost

Let's move to the calculations. Before the conflict began, Brent was worth about $70 with zero transit costs. Approximately 7.6 billion barrels of oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz annually. Possible scenarios for Iran's annual revenue from fees: at a fee of $0.50 per barrel — $3.8 billion; at $1 — $7.6 billion; at $2 — $15.2 billion. The $1 level is quite realistic. During the conflict, an unofficial fee of $1 per barrel was indeed levied. Additionally, there were reports of payments of up to $2 million per single voyage.

The direct cost of transit for the market is small, and these expenses are mainly borne by producers. A much greater effect comes from the risk premium—an additional amount investors factor in due to supply uncertainty. This is especially felt now, when the global market's margin of safety is minimal. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level in 43 years.

Analysts believe that with the market returning to normal around $80, a gradual introduction of the fee would add $2-6 to the cost. A chaotic scenario, on the other hand, would push prices up by $10 or more, and Brent could move into a range of $85 to $95. With severe destabilization, quotes would again exceed $100. It is important to emphasize: the fee itself of $1 or $2 is not capable of driving Brent to $100. It is precisely disruptions and attempted blockades that lead to such an outcome. If the implementation of the agreement hinders vessel movement, a war premium will return to the market. Recall that during the conflict, it was fear that pushed Brent above $100.

Forecasts: Consensus on Volatility

Industry leaders have warned of the risk of a rise. At Chevron and ExxonMobil, they stated that Brent prices could soar to $150-160 if reserves continue to decline. According to the EIA, Brent will average around $105 in June and July, after which prices may fall. Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast in light of the deal but warned of the risk of sharp fluctuations if passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored normally.

Even prediction markets confirm this outlook. On Polymarket, participants give about a 16% probability that oil prices will hit a record by December 31—this remains the main scenario among bets, despite some cooling of the situation after the deal.

Cryptalist Analyst's Conclusion

The oil market has found itself in a classic "bear trap." The short-term price decline on the news of the strait's opening is merely a reaction to the easing of the acute phase of the crisis. However, fundamental factors—the depletion of strategic reserves, a minimal margin of safety, and the upcoming introduction of fees—indicate that current lows could be an excellent entry point for long-term bulls. Ignoring the 60-day timer would be a serious mistake.