SpaceX shares on the verge of a correction: will they follow Tesla's fate?
Following its historic debut on the Nasdaq, SpaceX (SPCX) shares are exhibiting volatility that is leading many market participants to draw parallels with Tesla's famous IPO in 2010. The market capitalization of Elon Musk's space corporation is already rapidly approaching the $3 trillion mark, sparking both excitement and serious concerns.
SpaceX set its final offering price at $135, raising approximately $75 billion and breaking Saudi Aramco's record. After trading began, SPCX quotes surged by about 56%, and the shares are currently trading around $213.95. The company's capitalization temporarily reached $3 trillion, fueled by expectations of $18.7 billion in revenue by the end of 2025.
Why are traders expecting a crash?
Analysts, including renowned expert Ted Pillows, draw a direct analogy with the early stages of Musk's automotive business. In his report, he noted that SPCX's trajectory mirrors Tesla's scenario: a 60-70% rise after the IPO followed by a painful 50% decline. Investor Joe Bhakdi expects increased price pressure starting in August, citing the extremely limited number of shares in free float and forced purchases by index funds.
CNBC host Jim Cramer echoed these concerns, calling the jumpy growth without sellers characteristic of meme coins rather than fundamentally strong companies. SpaceX's multiples already significantly exceed Tesla's metrics at the dawn of its exchange history, increasing the risks of a correction.
Is there a chance for sustainable growth?
However, some experts consider betting on a decline premature. Financial advisor Thierry Borget points out that the share deficit, which drove the price up, is now working to protect it. Insiders are bound by strict lock-up agreements, and retail investors are in no hurry to lock in profits. Demand continues to dominate, as was the case with Tesla, despite constant warnings about inflated multiples.
Cryptalist Analyst: "The parallels with Tesla are not accidental, but they should not be taken literally. The key moment will come in August, when the first lock-up agreements expire and a new large batch of shares enters the market. Until then, the deficit and hype will sustain the price, but fundamental metrics indicate overvaluation. Investors should prepare for volatility, but not for a catastrophe — Tesla's history shows that corrections can be painful but not fatal for long-term holders."