SpaceX on the verge of a correction: repeating the Tesla scenario and signals of a crash
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are sending alarming signals, and the market is seriously discussing the likelihood of a sharp decline in the coming days following their historic debut on the Nasdaq. Traders are drawing direct parallels between the current behavior of the stock and Tesla's volatile 2010 listing. The market valuation of Elon Musk's space corporation is rapidly approaching the $3 trillion mark, raising questions about its sustainability.
Historic Debut and Unprecedented Market Value
SpaceX officially set the final price for its shares at $135 during the listing on June 12. As a result, the company raised approximately $75 billion, breaking the previous world record held by Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019. This public offering is recognized as the largest in world history, instantly placing SpaceX among the most valuable companies in the US.
Immediately after the opening of trading, the SPCX price rose by about 56%. The securities are currently trading in a price range around $213.95. After the main trading session ended, SpaceX's market capitalization briefly reached the $3 trillion mark. This surge occurred against the backdrop of expectations that the company's net revenue will be $18.7 billion by the end of 2025.
The current multiples of the space company have long since left behind the indicators of its own debut at a $2 trillion valuation. Moreover, the financial ratios significantly outpace any operational figures that Tesla demonstrated at the dawn of its stock market history.
Why Traders Expect a SpaceX Crash
Well-known analyst Ted Pillows has detailed a negative scenario for the development of events. In his report, the expert compared the trajectory of SPCX with the early stages of Musk's automotive business. Concurrently, an opinion is gaining popularity on social media that the company's head employed exactly the same capital-raising strategy as in 2010 during Tesla's launch.
However, the history is more complex than it seems. Tesla closed its first day of trading 40.5% above the offering price of $17. The shares roughly doubled within a few months but then lost nearly a quarter of their value in a couple of weeks. By the end of 2011, the gain was only 7.3%, without a single 70% crash — only after that did the company show a 300-fold increase.
"SpaceX $SPCX is following the same path as Tesla $TSLA. First — a rise of 60–70%, then — a painful drop of 50%," noted Ted Pillows.
Investor Joe Bhakdi expects price pressure starting in August. He cites the small volume of freely traded shares, forced purchases by index funds, and the company's valuation at nearly 90 times its 2026 annual revenue. CNBC host Jim Cramer echoed the concerns: he likes the company's prospects but dislikes observing the jumpy growth with almost no sellers, characteristic of meme coins.
Are There Chances for Sustained Growth
At the same time, some experts believe that betting on a decline does not account for the specifics of supply. Financial advisor Thierry Borget points out that the share deficit, which drove up the price, is now protecting it.
"Yes, by classic metrics, the stock is overvalued… But the price doesn't fall just because it should. It declines when there are more sellers than buyers… The deficit works both ways," noted Borget, CFA.
Buyer interest remains high. Within a few days, the number of ETFs that included SPCX increased from about four to roughly 120. Since insiders are currently bound by strict restrictions and cannot sell their stakes, and retail investors are in no hurry to lock in profits, demand continues to dominate confidently.
Noticeable changes on the chart may begin closer to August. That is when the first lock-up agreements are officially set to expire, resulting in a new large batch of securities entering the open market.
Until that moment, SpaceX's exchange-traded assets will remain guaranteed in the spotlight of the global community due to the deficit and inflated investor expectations. Basic fundamental indicators will temporarily take a back seat, while Elon Musk's personal capital continues to grow and attract heightened interest from investors in the space program.
My analysis: The market is in a classic "overheating" phase after the IPO, reinforced by a liquidity deficit. The expiration of lock-up periods in August will be a key trigger that could provoke a correction of 40-50%, as was the case with Tesla. Investors should prepare for high volatility and not succumb to euphoria.