Crypto news

Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in two months after the US and Iran reached an agreement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, despite the apparent easing of tensions, the market is not rushing to relax — traders are actively preparing for a potential rebound.

The agreement contains a critical nuance that is already being priced into the cost of crude for the coming months. Iran plans to impose a fee for passage through the strait 60 days after its reopening. Thus, a temporary logistical relief is replaced by a new financial burden for suppliers.

Agreement with Iran: A toll on a fifth of the world's oil

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz once again opens the route for transporting about a fifth of the world's oil volumes. Notably, before the conflict began, this route remained completely free for all vessels. Iran has officially stated its intention to levy service charges after the two-month free period expires. Donald Trump, on the other hand, insists on perpetual freedom of passage, while Vice President JD Vance and Iranian authorities are confident that the introduction of fees is inevitable after 60 days.

Markets reacted immediately: Brent fell by approximately 5%, dropping to $83 per barrel, and WTI to $80. These are lows for the past few months. The decline reflects only a short-term easing of supply conditions, but the futures curve indicates a more cautious sentiment among market participants.

The curve has cooled, but sentiment is bullish

During the conflict, the Brent market experienced sharp backwardation — a situation where the futures price is lower than the current spot price. Near-term contracts traded significantly higher than deferred ones, indicating an acute supply shortage. In April, the spread between the first and second Brent contracts reached $10.27. Now, this indicator has narrowed to about $0.67, suggesting expectations of a easing deficit. Nevertheless, the difference remains positive.

Brent quotes are gradually transitioning to moderate backwardation. They are not rushing to return to contango (when far-term contracts are more expensive than near-term ones). This means the acute shortage of crude has been resolved, but there are no signs of excess supply. Investor positioning is shifting in the opposite direction. According to the latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC, speculators reduced short positions by approximately 9,300 contracts as of June 9.

Options data confirms this trend. On the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), the put-to-call ratio stood at 0.08. In other words, there are several times more call contracts open than puts. Moreover, interest in calls is only growing. After the news about the fees, this ratio fell to 0.06. Thus, quotes have already priced in the fact of the route's reopening. The main bet is now on further developments, and the scale of this bet directly depends on the size of the future fee.

The BRN2 contract trades with a spread of about one month. At the same time, the underlying contract remains slightly more expensive. The futures curve has noticeably flattened, but it does not show clear signs of a bearish trend. If the fee is indeed introduced, the spread could widen again. The scenario completely aligns with the current predominance of bullish positions.

Potential impact of tolls on the cost per barrel

Let's move to the calculations. Before the conflict began, Brent was worth about $70 with zero transit costs. About 7.6 billion barrels of oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz annually. Possible scenarios for Iran's annual revenue from tolls:

• at a fee of $0.50 per barrel — $3.8 billion;
• at a fee of $1 per barrel — $7.6 billion;
• at a fee of $2 per barrel — $15.2 billion.

The $1 level is quite realistic. During the conflict, an unofficial fee of $1 per barrel was indeed charged. Additionally, reports emerged of payments of up to $2 million per voyage. The direct cost of transit for the market is small. Initially, these expenses are mainly borne by producers. A much greater effect comes from the risk premium — an additional amount that investors factor in due to supply uncertainty.

Such a premium is particularly pronounced now. The global market's safety margin is minimal. For example, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level in 43 years. Analysts believe that if the market returns to normal around $80, a gradual introduction of the fee would add $2-6 to the cost. Conversely, a chaotic scenario would push prices up by $10 or more. Thus, Brent could enter a corridor from $85 to $95. With severe destabilization, quotes would again exceed $100.

It is important to emphasize: the fee itself of $1 or $2 is not capable of driving Brent to $100. It is precisely disruptions and attempts at blockades that lead to such an outcome. If the implementation of the agreement hinders vessel movement, a war premium will return to the market. Recall that during the conflict, it was fear that pushed Brent above $100. Market signals fully confirm such risks.

Oil forecasts and market bets say the same thing

Industry leaders warned of the risk of a rise. At Chevron and ExxonMobil, they stated that the price of Brent could soar to $150-160 if inventories continue to decline. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent will average about $105 in June and July, after which prices may decline. Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast in light of the deal but warned of the risk of sharp fluctuations if passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored normally.

Even prediction markets confirm this outlook. On Polymarket, participants give about a 16% probability that the price of oil will hit a record by December 31 — this remains the main scenario among bets, despite some cooling of the situation after the deal.

Currently, oil prices are holding near their two-month lows. Brent is trading around $83, and WTI is near $80. The next CFTC report will clearly show whether buyers have managed to maintain their advantage. If restrictions are lifted without new fees, prices will continue to decline towards the EIA forecast range of $70-79. However, the introduction of controversial fees in 60 days will tighten the balance again. In this case, oil will return to levels above $80 and head towards the $90 area.

As an analyst, I note: the current situation is a classic example of a "bear trap." The short-term price decline against the backdrop of news about easing creates an illusion of sustained decline, but fundamental indicators (low inventories, high demand, and upcoming fees) point to a high probability of a reversal to the upside. Investors should be prepared for a resumption of volatility and a rise in oil prices in the coming months.