SpaceX shares at risk of collapse following Tesla scenario: when to expect a correction
The SpaceX stock market is sending alarming signals. After its historic debut on the Nasdaq, when Elon Musk's company's market capitalization rapidly approached the $3 trillion mark, traders are increasingly drawing parallels with the early stages of Tesla. The scenario is repeating: a surge, euphoria — and an inevitable correction.
Analysts' opinions are sharply divided. Some experts predict a sharp market correction as soon as selling pressure intensifies on the exchange. Others, on the contrary, believe that the extremely limited volume of shares in free float could keep prices high for several more months.
Historic Debut and Unprecedented Market Value
SpaceX officially set the final price for its shares at $135 during the placement on June 12. As a result of this move, the company managed to raise approximately $75 billion, breaking the previous world record held by Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019. The public offering is officially recognized as the largest in world history, instantly placing SpaceX among the most valuable companies in the U.S.
Immediately after the opening of trading, the SPCX price rose by about 56%. Currently, the securities are trading in a price range around $213.95. After the main trading session ended, SpaceX's market capitalization briefly reached the $3 trillion mark. This surge occurred amid expectations that the company's net revenue will be $18.7 billion by the end of 2025.
The current multiples of the space company have already far surpassed the indicators of its own debut at a $2 trillion valuation. Moreover, the financial ratios significantly outpace any operational figures that Tesla demonstrated at the dawn of its stock market history.
Why Traders Expect a SpaceX Crash
Renowned analyst Ted Pillows detailed a negative scenario for the development of events. In his report, the expert compared the trajectory of SPCX with the early stages of Musk's automotive business. Concurrently, the opinion is gaining popularity on social media that the company's head used exactly the same capital raising strategy as in 2010 during Tesla's launch. However, the story is more complex than it seems. Tesla ended its first trading day 40.5% above the offering price of $17. The shares roughly doubled in a few months but then lost nearly a quarter of their value in a couple of weeks. By the end of 2011, the gain was only 7.3%, without a single 70% crash — only after that did the company show a 300-fold increase.
"SpaceX $SPCX is following the same path as Tesla $TSLA. First — a rise of 60–70%, then — a painful drop of 50%," noted Ted Pillows.
Investor Joe Bhakdi expects price pressure starting in August. He cites the small volume of freely traded shares, forced purchases by index funds, and the company's valuation at nearly 90 times its 2026 annual revenue. CNBC host Jim Cramer echoed the concerns: he likes the company's prospects but dislikes seeing the jumpy growth with almost no sellers, characteristic of memecoins.
Is There a Chance for Sustained Growth?
At the same time, some experts believe that betting on a decline does not account for supply specifics. Financial advisor Thierry Borget points out that the share deficit, which drove the price up, is now protecting it.
"Yes, by classic metrics, the securities are overvalued… But the price doesn't fall just because it should. It declines when there are more sellers than buyers… The deficit works both ways," noted Borget, CFA.
Buyer interest remains high. Within a few days, the number of ETFs that included SPCX increased from about four to roughly 120. Since insiders are currently bound by strict restrictions and cannot sell their stakes, and retail investors are in no hurry to lock in profits, demand continues to dominate confidently. A similar market situation was observed for Tesla for a long time, despite constant analyst skepticism about the company's too-high multiples several years ago.
Noticeable changes on the chart could begin closer to August. That is when the first lock-up agreements officially expire, resulting in a new large batch of securities entering the open market.
Until that moment, SpaceX's exchange-traded assets will remain guaranteed in the spotlight of the global community due to the deficit and inflated investor expectations. Basic fundamental indicators will temporarily take a back seat while Elon Musk's personal capital continues to grow and attract increased investor interest in the space program.
My expert conclusion: The scenario of a SpaceX crash looks highly likely, and the historical precedent with Tesla serves as a compelling argument. However, the timeframe could be extended due to artificial scarcity. Investors should prepare for high volatility in the coming weeks, and the key moment will be August, when new liquidity from insiders floods the market. Fundamental metrics are now just noise; reality is dictated by supply and demand.