Is SpaceX on the verge of a correction? Historical debut and Tesla's shadow over the market
Elon Musk's space corporation, SpaceX, has achieved a historic breakthrough by listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange with phenomenal results. However, behind the glittering records lie alarming signals that are prompting many analysts to draw parallels with the early days of Tesla. The company's market capitalization is already rapidly approaching the $3 trillion mark, but traders are wondering: are we facing a repeat of the 2010 scenario followed by a painful crash?
Record Debut and Inflated Expectations
SpaceX set the final IPO price at $135 per share on June 12, raising approximately $75 billion. This result broke the previous global record held by Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019. Immediately after the start of trading, the SPCX stock price surged by about 56%, and the shares are currently trading around $213.95. After the main trading session ended, SpaceX's market capitalization briefly reached $3 trillion, driven by expectations of $18.7 billion in revenue for the full year 2025. The company's current multiples already significantly outpace those of its own debut at a $2 trillion valuation and substantially exceed the operational figures that Tesla demonstrated at the dawn of its stock market history.
Parallels with Tesla: A Downside Scenario
Prominent analyst Ted Pillows has detailed a negative scenario, comparing SPCX's trajectory to the early stages of Musk's automotive business. He notes that SpaceX is following the same path as Tesla: first a rise of 60–70%, followed by a painful drop of 50%. The history is indeed more complex than it seems: Tesla ended its first trading day 40.5% above its $17 IPO price, the shares roughly doubled within a few months, but then lost nearly a quarter of their value in a couple of weeks. For the full year 2011, the gain was only 7.3%, and only after that did the company show a 300-fold increase.
Investor Joe Bhakdi expects price pressure starting in August, citing the small number of freely floating shares, forced buying by index funds, and the company's valuation at nearly 90 times its projected 2026 annual revenue. CNBC host Jim Cramer echoed these concerns, noting the jumpy growth with almost no sellers, characteristic of meme coins.
The Scarcity Factor and Temporary Protection
At the same time, some experts believe that betting on a decline does not account for supply-side peculiarities. Financial advisor Thierry Borget points out that the share scarcity, which drove the price up, is now protecting it. He notes that by classic metrics, the shares are overvalued, but the price doesn't fall just because it should—it declines when there are more sellers than buyers. Scarcity works both ways.
Buyer interest remains high: within a few days, the number of ETFs including SPCX increased from about four to roughly 120. Since insiders are currently bound by strict restrictions and cannot sell their stakes, and retail investors are in no hurry to lock in profits, demand continues to dominate confidently. A similar market situation was observed for Tesla for a long time, despite the constant skepticism from analysts regarding the company's excessively high multiples several years ago.
Noticeable changes on the chart could begin closer to August, when the first lock-up agreements officially expire and a new large batch of securities enters the open market. Until that moment, SpaceX's stock market assets are guaranteed to remain in the global spotlight due to scarcity and inflated investor expectations. Basic fundamental indicators will temporarily take a back seat, while Elon Musk's personal wealth continues to grow and attract heightened interest in the space program.
Expert Opinion: The market is clearly overheated, and the current $3 trillion valuation looks more like a result of hype rather than a reflection of real business performance. However, until August, when lock-up restrictions begin to be lifted, the 'bullish' trend could persist due to artificial scarcity. Investors should be extremely cautious and prepare for a potential correction that could be as sharp as the rise was impressive.