SpaceX shares under threat: a repeat of the Tesla scenario and a possible crash date
The market is anxiously watching the behavior of SpaceX (SPCX) shares following their historic debut on the Nasdaq. Traders and analysts are drawing parallels between the current dynamics and Tesla's volatile 2010 listing. Against this backdrop, Elon Musk's company market capitalization is already rapidly approaching the $3 trillion mark, raising serious concerns about overheating.
Expert opinions are sharply divided. Some predict a sharp correction as soon as selling pressure intensifies in the market. Others, on the contrary, believe that the extremely limited volume of shares in free float could keep prices at high levels for several more months.
Historic Debut and Record Capitalization
SpaceX set its final offering price at $135, raising approximately $75 billion. This move broke the previous record held by Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019. Immediately after the opening of trading, the SPCX price surged by about 56%, and the shares are now trading around $213.95. The company's capitalization briefly reached $3 trillion, driven by expectations of $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025.
SpaceX's current multiples have already far surpassed those of its own debut at a $2 trillion valuation. The financial ratios significantly outpace any operational figures that Tesla demonstrated at the dawn of its stock market history.
Why Traders Expect a Crash
Renowned analyst Ted Pillows detailed a negative scenario, comparing the SPCX trajectory to the early stages of Musk's automotive business. He notes that SpaceX is following the same path: first a rise of 60–70%, then a painful drop of 50%. Investor Joe Bhakdi expects price pressure starting in August, citing the small volume of freely traded shares, forced purchases by index funds, and a valuation nearly 90 times the projected 2026 annual revenue.
CNBC host Jim Cramer also echoed the concerns: he likes the company's prospects but dislikes the jumpy growth with almost no sellers, characteristic of meme coins.
Is There a Chance for Sustained Growth?
However, some experts believe that betting on a decline overlooks supply specifics. Financial advisor Thierry Borget points out that the share deficit, which drove the price up, is now protecting it. The price does not fall simply because it should—it declines when sellers outnumber buyers. Demand continues to dominate confidently, as insiders are bound by strict restrictions, and retail investors are in no hurry to lock in profits.
Noticeable changes on the chart may begin closer to August, when the first lock-up agreements expire. This will lead to a new large batch of securities entering the open market.
My professional opinion: The parallel with Tesla looks convincing, but one should not forget SpaceX's unique position. The share deficit and hype around the Musk brand may delay a correction, but fundamental metrics will inevitably prevail. Investors should prepare for high volatility in the coming months, especially after August.