Mining crisis: the cost of mining bitcoin has exceeded $76,000, while the price has dropped to $60,000
The drop in Bitcoin's price below the $60,000 mark in early June dealt a serious blow not only to retail investors but also to the mining industry. Monitoring fund flows shows that miners of the leading cryptocurrency have once again intensified sales of their reserves, attempting to offset operational losses.
The industry has been going through tough times for several months. Since the end of October last year, the network's hashrate — the total computational power — has decreased by almost 28%. This is a clear indicator that some market participants have either ceased operations or restructured their capacity to reduce costs.
Price Below Cost: Forced Sell-off
The reduction in capacity naturally led to a correction in mining difficulty — by about 20% over the same period. However, the key problem lies in the economics of the process. With an estimated average production cost of one BTC around $76,000, the current price level of $65,000–$60,000 makes the vast majority of miners unprofitable.
Under these conditions, they have no choice but to sell the coins they mine, often at the most inopportune time. Analysis of inflows to the Binance exchange shows a clear correlation. In February, when Bitcoin first tested the $60,000 level, the volume of coins coming from miners surged sharply. On February 5 alone, over 24,000 BTC were sent to the exchange, and the monthly average jumped from 5,000 to 8,000 BTC.
June Scenario: History Repeats
In early June, history repeated itself with alarming precision. For more than four consecutive days, daily inflows from miners to Binance exceeded 10,000 BTC, peaking at 12,800 BTC. The monthly average for this period rose from 4,700 to 7,100 BTC.
The volumes of these sales are large enough to exert noticeable additional pressure on an already weakened market. Miners essentially become forced sellers, exacerbating the downward trend.
Expert opinion: The current situation is a classic example of a price trap for the mining industry. Until the hashrate drops to a level where the production cost falls below the market price, we will see periodic surges in sales from miners. This creates a sustained "bearish" backdrop that could prolong Bitcoin's correction, despite long-term bullish factors like the halving. Investors should closely monitor hashrate dynamics as a leading indicator.