Bitcoin pressure persists: analysts explain why the market is stuck in consolidation
Despite positive signals from the macroeconomic front and a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, bitcoin stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark. The main source of pressure is concerns related to possible new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Strategy's Strategy in Question
Analysts at QCP Capital note that the company may be forced to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that by actively issuing shares and increasing its potential, Strategy creates excessive optimism, which could ultimately backfire on the first cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, the stabilization of the macroeconomic environment continues to support risk assets.
Short-Term Holders Hold the Line
Contributors to CryptoQuant from the COINDREAM team note that short-term holders remain calm. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category of investors is near the 0.995 mark, indicating only minor losses. The metric is confidently holding above the "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 mark would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Altcoins Under Pressure
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, selling pressure in the altcoin market has reached a five-year high. According to researchers at IT Tech, the cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. The metric nearly reached zero at the beginning of 2025, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to fall.
My comment: The market is caught in a trap between two opposing forces. On one hand, macroeconomic stability and the calmness of short-term holders create a foundation for growth. On the other, potential sales by a major institutional player and record pressure on altcoins are keeping bitcoin from breaking upward. Until the uncertainty surrounding Strategy's actions is resolved, the market will likely continue to tread water, and investors should prepare for increased volatility if the current range is broken.