Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Analysis of consolidation reasons and hidden risks
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to be in a sideways phase, and the current consolidation of bitcoin below the $66,000 mark has very specific fundamental reasons. Despite the geopolitical détente between the US and Iran reducing risks for the global energy sector, pressure on BTC persists.
The key factor restraining growth remains concerns related to the actions of Strategy. As my observations show, the market is pricing in possible new bitcoin sales by this major institutional holder. The company may need to offload part of its reserves to finance dividend payments, especially after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029.
The paradox of the situation is that Strategy continues to actively issue shares, increasing its potential. However, this optimism, oddly enough, could work against the market by creating an overhang of supply. At the same time, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which is generally favorable for risk assets.
An analysis of short-term holders' behavior paints a more encouraging picture. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating only minor unrealized losses. The key panic threshold — the 0.95 level — has not yet been breached. The current structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a mass capitulation. A return of the indicator above 1 will be the first signal of improving sentiment.
However, real concern comes from the altcoin market. Selling pressure here has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. After a short-term recovery in early 2025, the indicator has sharply declined again.
My forecast and expert opinion: While bitcoin shows relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a significant outflow of liquidity. This is a classic sign of capital redistribution in favor of the BTC "safe haven." However, if pressure from Strategy materializes into actual sales, we could see a breakout of the current range. Investors should closely monitor the actions of large holders rather than trying to guess the absolute bottom — it is much more important to recognize a trend change in time.