Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Cryptalist analyst explains the reasons for consolidation
Despite the recent agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which temporarily reduced geopolitical risks in the energy sector, bitcoin continues to trade below the $66,000 mark. The market is in a holding pattern, and the main reason is fear of new sell-offs by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company, which holds the largest corporate BTC portfolio, may be forced to sell off some of its assets to fund dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the redemption of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that by increasing its share issuance and boosting its growth potential, Strategy is creating a bearish backdrop for the first cryptocurrency — optimism around the company could turn against bitcoin itself.
Macroeconomic Stability: A Double-Edged Sword
On one hand, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets. However, for now, this factor is not enough to outweigh the pressure from major players. The market is caught between macro-positivity and micro-uncertainty.
Short-Term Holders: Calm Before the Storm?
Analysts from CryptoQuant's COINDREAM team note that short-term holders are displaying surprising calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is near the 0.995 level, indicating only minor losses. The metric remains above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95, pointing to a fragile recovery phase rather than full-scale capitulation.
If the SOPR returns to the 1.0 level, it would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment. However, a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal, foreshadowing a rise in panic selling.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Seller Pressure at Five-Year High
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a veritable wave of selling. According to researchers at IT Tech, seller pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between spot market buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
At the start of 2025, the indicator nearly returned to zero, offering hope for a trend reversal. However, a sharp reversal followed, and since then, the indicator has been steadily declining. This suggests that investors continue to offload altcoins, seeing no short-term potential in them.
My Expert Opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather an accumulation phase ahead of the next significant move. However, the risks associated with Strategy's actions and the pressure on altcoins cannot be ignored. As long as BTC holds above key support levels, the market retains upside potential, but any negative trigger could provoke a sharp correction. Long-term investors should focus on fundamentals rather than trying to time the bottom.