Bitcoin stuck in consolidation: Strategy pressure and calmness of short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to remain in a narrow range, unable to break through the $66,000 mark. In my estimation, the main restraining factor is the fear of potential new sales by Strategy. The agreement between the US and Iran, while reducing geopolitical risks for the energy sector, has failed to reverse this trend.
Strategy: a double-edged sword
The company will likely need to raise additional funds to finance dividend payments. Especially after the redemption of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that the active issuance of shares and the buildup of Strategy's growth potential, which are usually perceived as a bullish signal, could in this case turn against bitcoin. The market fears that any optimism surrounding the company will ultimately lead to a new wave of pressure on BTC.
Short-term holders: a fragile equilibrium
However, it is not so clear-cut. Data from CryptoQuant, particularly the analysis by the COINDREAM team, indicates that short-term holders are still maintaining their composure. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is fluctuating near the 0.995 mark, suggesting minor losses but not panic. The current market structure resembles more a fragile recovery phase than a full capitulation.
The key level here is 0.95 — the "panic threshold." As long as the indicator stays above it, the market retains potential for a rebound. A return to the 1 mark will be the first confirmation of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would be a worrying signal.
Altcoins under pressure
Against the backdrop of relative stability in bitcoin, pressure on altcoins has reached extreme levels. According to data from IT Tech researchers, the cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. This indicator briefly approached zero in early 2025, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to fall, indicating strong and sustained selling pressure.
My conclusion: The market is in a state of uncertainty. Bitcoin is holding on due to the relative calm of short-term holders, but the fundamental pressure from Strategy and the massive sell-off of altcoins create an extremely tense environment. Until BTC closes above $66,000 with volume confirmation, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal.