Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to consolidate near the $66,000 mark, despite a reduction in macroeconomic risks following the recent agreement between the US and Iran. The main driver of restraint is concerns related to potential bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Capital flow analysis shows that the need to finance dividend payments could become a key pressure factor. After redeeming $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029, the company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves. At the same time, the issuance of shares and the increased growth potential of Strategy create a paradoxical situation: optimism around the company could turn against the cryptocurrency itself if liquidity from sales floods the market.
Short-term holders remain calm
Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term investors are not panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. The metric is holding firmly above the critical threshold of 0.95, which traditionally signals the onset of mass capitulation.
The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full trend reversal. A return of SOPR to the 1 level will be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 will open the door to panic selling.
Altcoins under pressure: seller pressure reaches extreme levels
Against the backdrop of relative bitcoin stability, the altcoin market is experiencing tough times. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded a five-year high in seller pressure. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
The metric nearly returned to zero at the start of 2025, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to decline. This indicates that investors are actively offloading altcoins, preferring to either move into fiat or shift into bitcoin and ether.
My professional view: bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather accumulation ahead of the next move. However, pressure from Strategy and record altcoin sales create a unique dynamic. As long as short-term BTC holders hold firm, the market retains potential for growth, but any disruption in this fragile balance could trigger a sharp correction.