Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calm among short-term holders
The market for the first cryptocurrency is in a consolidation phase. Despite the geopolitical deal between the US and Iran easing some tensions in the energy sector, bitcoin is stubbornly holding below the $66,000 mark. The main drag is concerns about potential new sales from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Strategy Under the Microscope: Dividends as a Trigger
Analysis shows that the company may be forced to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to fund dividend payments. This issue became particularly acute after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that Strategy's aggressive share issuance, aimed at increasing growth potential, could ultimately work against the market. The optimism surrounding this strategy risks turning into additional pressure on BTC.
Macroeconomic Stabilization: Light at the End of the Tunnel
However, it's not all doom and gloom. The macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally supports risk assets. This creates a foundation for potential growth, but the market is waiting for clearer signals for now.
Short-Term Holders: Fragile Recovery Without Panic
A key sentiment indicator — the SOPR for short-term holders — is around 0.995. This points to minor losses, but by no means mass panic. The metric is holding firmly above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current market structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation. If the SOPR returns to the 1 mark, it will confirm an improvement in sentiment. A drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of increased risk of panic selling.
Altcoins in a Turbulence Zone
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, selling pressure on altcoins has hit a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. The indicator nearly closed at the zero level in early 2025, but then sharply reversed and continues to decline.
My Expert Opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a waiting game. The market is digesting potential risks from the actions of major players like Strategy, while simultaneously gathering strength for the next move. Altcoins, however, are in a much more vulnerable position, and their current dynamics serve as a warning for those seeking quick profits. Investors should focus on the long-term perspective and avoid trying to catch the bottom — as the CIO of Bitwise rightly noted, the next bull cycle is more important than current fluctuations.