Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holder calm
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues its consolidation phase, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran reduced geopolitical risks for the energy sector, but bitcoin stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark. The key restraining factor is the fear of new sales from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
As I assumed, the company holding the largest corporate BTC stash may be forced to sell off some assets to finance dividend payments. Especially after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that the ongoing issuance of Strategy shares, aimed at increasing growth potential, could ultimately work against bitcoin, creating additional supply-side pressure.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally supports risk assets. In this context, the dynamics of short-term holders are interesting. According to CryptoQuant data, the SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses but no signs of panic.
The key panic threshold is the 0.95 mark. As long as the indicator stays above it, the market is in a phase of fragile recovery rather than full capitulation. A return to the 1 level will be the first signal of improving sentiment. If the SOPR breaks below 0.95, it will be a warning sign of rising fear and a potential cascade of liquidations.
Against the backdrop of relative bitcoin stability, altcoins are experiencing a real wave of selling. The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all coins, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. In early 2025, the indicator nearly recovered to zero, but then sharply reversed and continues to fall, reaching a five-year low.
My View on the Situation
The market is squeezed between two forces: on one side, macroeconomic stability and the calmness of long-term holders; on the other, pressure from potential institutional sales and massive altcoin dumping. In this configuration, bitcoin will likely continue trading in a narrow range until a clear catalyst emerges. Investors should focus not on finding the perfect bottom, but on the overall structure of the bull cycle — the fundamental drivers remain intact.