Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and hidden risks
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues to show a sluggish consolidation below the $66,000 mark. Despite positive macroeconomic signals, such as reduced geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, Bitcoin cannot find the strength for a confident rally. In my observation, the main brake is the uncertainty surrounding the actions of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Analysts at QCP Capital rightly point to potential pressure from this corporation. The company may need to sell some of its Bitcoin to fund dividend payments, especially after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy's aggressive share issuance, aimed at increasing its Bitcoin holdings, could ultimately work against the market if the company needs liquidity.
On the other hand, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which is traditionally a positive factor for risk assets. However, internal cryptocurrency metrics paint a mixed picture. Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term holders (STH) remain relatively calm. The SOPR indicator for this group is at 0.995, indicating minimal losses but no panic.
Panic threshold and altcoin pressure
The key level for SOPR is the 0.95 mark. As long as the indicator stays above it, the market is in a phase of fragile recovery, not full capitulation. A return to the 1.0 level would be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would mean a sharp rise in fear and a potential sell-off.
An even more alarming situation is developing in the altcoin market. According to researchers at IT Tech, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. After a brief recovery in early 2025, this indicator has sharply declined again.
My analysis shows that the current situation is not just a "sideways market," but a period of accumulating uncertainty. While institutional players like Strategy balance on the edge, and altcoins continue to bleed, Bitcoin remains hostage to corporate decisions and local sell-offs. Long-term investors should prepare for the consolidation phase to potentially drag on until a clear catalyst emerges capable of breaking the current pattern.