Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of the reasons for the current consolidation and pressure from Strategy
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways dynamics, settling below the $66,000 mark. Despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, which should have eased fears of a global energy crisis, the bullish momentum is restrained by one key factor — potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my calculations, the company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy's aggressive stock issuance, aimed at increasing growth potential, could ultimately work against bitcoin itself, creating additional downward pressure on the price.
However, not everything is so pessimistic. The macroeconomic picture is gradually stabilizing, which is traditionally a positive signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Short-term holders remain calm
An analysis of short-term holder (STH) behavior confirms the absence of panic sentiment. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating only minor losses upon realization. The key "panic threshold" is at 0.95, and current values are far from this critical zone.
The current market structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. To confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, the SOPR needs to return above 1.0. A drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal, indicating an increased risk of a mass sell-off.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is causing serious concern. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has reached a five-year extreme. The negative zone has persisted for 15 consecutive months.
Notably, at the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly returned to the zero level, but then a sharp reversal followed, and since then, selling pressure has only intensified. This points to a structural capital outflow from the altcoin sector, which could be a precursor to further consolidation or correction across the entire market.
My expert conclusion: While the market's main focus remains on Strategy's actions and macroeconomic triggers, bitcoin will likely continue trading in a narrow range. However, long-term investors should not fixate on finding the perfect bottom — it is much more important to assess the potential of the next bullish cycle, which, despite current difficulties, remains highly promising.