Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysts name main reasons for consolidation
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues to face pressure, despite the easing of geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which was expected to reduce tensions in the global energy sector, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. In my observation, the main reason for the stagnation remains the fear of new sell-offs by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company, which holds the largest corporate BTC reserve, may be forced to continue selling coins to finance dividend payments. This issue became particularly acute after the redemption of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy's aggressive stock issuance, aimed at boosting growth potential, could ultimately work against Bitcoin itself, increasing selling pressure.
However, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Against this backdrop, the behavior of short-term BTC holders appears notably calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses but no panic. The metric remains above the critical threshold of 0.95, which separates the recovery phase from full capitulation. A return to the 1 level will be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would indicate rising fear and a potential collapse.
Pressure on altcoins has reached extreme levels
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a true wave of selling. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, this indicator nearly returned to zero, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to hit new lows. This is a five-year extreme, reflecting deep pessimism among altcoin investors.
My comment: The current market configuration resembles a classic "bear trap." Bitcoin is holding key support levels despite pressure from one of the largest players, and panic in altcoins often precedes a trend reversal. Long-term investors should focus on fundamental metrics rather than searching for the perfect entry point, as Bitwise's CIO rightly noted. The next bullish cycle could start suddenly, and those now looking at the bottom risk missing the breakout.