Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: seller pressure and macroeconomic stability
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues its consolidation phase, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which could have eased tensions in the energy sector, did not act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's growth. The price stubbornly remains below the $66,000 mark, and the key reason is concerns related to potential large-scale sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
My analysis shows that the main pressure stems from the company's need to finance dividend payments. After redeeming $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029, Strategy may be forced to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves. Paradoxically, the aggressive issuance of shares to boost growth potential, which previously supported optimism, could now turn against the market. The more shares the company issues, the higher the risk of a subsequent BTC sell-off to service corporate obligations.
Short-term holders remain calm
Against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, the SOPR indicator for short-term holders (STH) stands at 0.995. This suggests minimal losses among this category of investors. The indicator remains above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95, indicating a fragile recovery phase rather than full-scale capitulation. If SOPR returns to the 1.0 level, it would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment. However, a break below 0.95 would be a warning sign, foreshadowing an increase in panic selling.
Altcoins under pressure: a five-year record for sellers
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, altcoins are experiencing a real onslaught of pressure. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 months. This indicator has reached a five-year low. At the beginning of 2025, it almost recovered to zero, but a sharp reversal and subsequent continuous decline point to a deep structural imbalance. Investors are actively offloading altcoins, creating an additional backdrop for the consolidation of the entire market.
Expert commentary: The current situation reminds me of a classic "bear trap." The pressure from Strategy and the sell-off of altcoins create an illusion of weakness, but the stability of short-term holders and the improving macroeconomic backdrop suggest that fundamental sentiment remains bullish. I expect that once the corporate risks of Strategy are fully priced in by the market, Bitcoin will be able to resume its upward movement. For long-term investors, it is now more important to look at the next cycle rather than try to catch the perfect bottom.