Why Bitcoin is stuck below $66,000: an analysis of key consolidation factors
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks for the global energy sector, failed to push bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main brake on growth is concerns related to possible new sales by Strategy.
My analysis shows that the company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. Strategy's strategy of issuing shares and increasing its growth potential, which was previously perceived as a bullish signal, could now turn against the market.
Short-term holders remain calm
Data from CryptoQuant, provided by the COINDREAM team, indicates that short-term investors are not yet panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of participants is at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. The metric is confidently holding above the critical threshold of 0.95, which is considered the capitulation zone.
The current market structure resembles more of a fragile recovery phase than a full-scale sell-off. A return of SOPR to the 1.0 level will confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a break below 0.95 will indicate growing panic and a possible acceleration of the downward movement.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is causing serious concern. According to data from IT Tech researchers, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Particularly telling is the sharp reversal of this indicator in early 2025: after almost reaching the zero level, it has again headed downward and continues to fall. This suggests that investors are continuing to lock in losses on altcoins, shifting into safer assets.
My expert opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a process of regrouping before the next major move. While short-term holders show composure and the macroeconomic backdrop stabilizes, the main risk remains Strategy's behavior. However, it is precisely such periods of "calm" that often precede the strongest surges. Long-term investors should focus on fundamental indicators rather than daily fluctuations.