Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calm among short-term holders
The first cryptocurrency market continues to show sideways dynamics, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The agreement between the US and Iran has reduced geopolitical risks for the energy sector, but Bitcoin has failed to consolidate above the $66,000 mark. The main restraining factor remains concerns about possible new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Analysts at QCP Capital note that the company may need to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that, on one hand, Strategy is increasing its potential through additional share issuance, but on the other hand, this optimism could backfire on BTC if the company begins active selling.
Short-term holders remain calm
Against the backdrop of external pressure, the key sentiment indicator among short-term investors — SOPR — is at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. According to data from the COINDREAM team at CryptoQuant, the indicator is firmly holding above the "panic threshold" of 0.95. This points to a fragile recovery phase rather than mass capitulation. If SOPR returns to 1, it will confirm improved sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year anti-record
While Bitcoin remains stable for now, the altcoin market is experiencing tough times. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. A brief recovery to zero levels in early 2025 was followed by a sharp reversal, and since then, the indicator has been steadily declining.
My expert assessment: The current situation resembles a classic accumulation phase before a major move. However, the key risk is potential liquidity from Strategy, which could trigger a local correction. For now, the market is in a state of uncertainty, and investors should closely monitor the actions of large holders rather than short-term price fluctuations.