France has surged to the lead in the Polymarket race for the 2026 World Cup: bets reshuffled after Spain's sensational draw.
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team now confidently leads the rankings, overtaking Spain, which lost ground after an unexpected goalless draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the first round, Spain was considered the outright favorite with the highest probability of winning. However, the goalless draw with the underdog instantly changed the landscape. Traders on Polymarket quickly reacted to the disappointing result, and bets on the Spanish team dropped by 3 percentage points to 13%. The contract for Spain's victory is now trading at $0.134.
France, on the other hand, has strengthened its position. The share of bets on its triumph is 18.4%, and the contract price has reached $0.185. The team has slightly improved over the past day, but it was enough to secure the top spot. Rounding out the top five are Argentina (11%, $0.116), England (10%, $0.104), and Portugal (about 10%, $0.103). The total volume of the winner betting market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, highlighting the enormous interest in the tournament.
Why Spain Lost Ground
The draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the start. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the market immediately cooled on the Spanish team. However, I wouldn't rush to write them off. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains excellent chances to improve their position in the following matches. The density at the top is extremely high: France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could drastically change the picture.
Matches of the Day and Ronaldo's Debut
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17. For Ronaldo, this tournament will likely be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start could strengthen Portugal's position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five.
On the same game day, England will face Croatia, where the British team is the favorite with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
My analysis: The Polymarket market once again demonstrates high sensitivity to live match results. Spain's decline is more of an emotional correction than an objective assessment of its strength. France is currently on a roll, but maintaining the lead until the final will be difficult: the density at the top is too high, and any unexpected result in the group could reshuffle the deck again. Watch the dynamics — it is in such moments that the most profitable bets are born.