Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and hidden risks
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite a decrease in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which was supposed to ease tensions in the global energy sector, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main brake on growth is concerns related to potential new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from Strategy: the dividend factor
Analysts emphasize that the company may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This becomes particularly relevant after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy's aggressive share issuance, aimed at increasing growth potential, may ultimately work against the cryptocurrency itself. While the market currently views these actions positively, any hint of a forced sale of BTC could trigger a correction.
Short-term holders: calm before the storm?
On the other hand, on-chain analytics data indicates no panic among short-term investors. The SOPR indicator for this category of participants is at 0.995, suggesting minimal losses. The metric is confidently holding above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current market structure resembles more of a fragile recovery phase than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to 1 will be the first signal of improving short-term sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would mean a sharp rise in fear.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling pressure
While Bitcoin maintains relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a serious crisis. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, this indicator almost reached zero, but then a sharp reversal followed, and since then, selling pressure has only intensified, reaching a five-year extreme. This indicates a massive outflow of liquidity from altcoins, which is an extremely bearish signal for the entire sector, except for Bitcoin.
My view: The market is in a classic phase of capital redistribution. Investors are exiting overvalued altcoins and consolidating positions in Bitcoin, awaiting a clearer macroeconomic signal or catalyst. However, the main threat now comes not from external factors, but from the actions of the largest corporate holder. Any news of a BTC sale by Strategy could become a trigger for a sharp decline that would break the current fragile stability.