Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holder calm
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways dynamics, despite the reduction of geopolitical risks after the agreement between the US and Iran. Bitcoin stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark, and the key restraining factor is the fear of potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my analysis, the main threat to the bullish scenario comes from Strategy's need to finance dividend payments. The company recently repurchased $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029, which could force it to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves. The paradox is that Strategy's aggressive stock issuance, aimed at increasing growth potential, may ultimately work against the cryptocurrency itself, increasing pressure on the price.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, creating a favorable environment for risk assets. The on-chain situation also does not look critical. Data from CryptoQuant, particularly the analysis by the COINDREAM team, shows that short-term holders are maintaining their composure. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating minimal losses.
The key support level for this indicator is 0.95. As long as it holds above this level, we are observing not a panic capitulation, but a fragile recovery phase. A return to the 1.0 value will signal an improvement in sentiment, while a break below 0.95 will indicate a sharp rise in fear and the likelihood of a large-scale sell-off.
However, the picture in the altcoin market is much more alarming. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. A short-term recovery attempt in early 2025 was rejected, and the indicator has only worsened since then.
My professional opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not just a lull, but a moment of truth for the market. While short-term holders show surprising resilience, Strategy's actions and the ongoing exodus from altcoins create a powerful counterbalance. Investors should closely monitor the SOPR and the actions of large corporate holders, as these factors, rather than geopolitics, will determine the next significant impulse for BTC.