France surges to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner rewritten
Polymarket's prediction market has recorded a change in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team now occupies the top spot, displacing Spain after the latter's unexpected draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the opening round, the Spanish confidently led the odds, but a goalless draw with an underdog instantly changed the landscape. Traders on Polymarket quickly reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team seized the initiative.
Current odds and market dynamics
France's victory now accounts for 18.4% of all bets, with the contract for their championship trading at $0.185. Over the past day, the team has slightly strengthened its position and secured the top of the ranking. Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing approximately three percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting high interest in the tournament.
Why Spain lost ground
The draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to Spain's odds. However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not ruled them out as one of the main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their position in upcoming matches. The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight: France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage can quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17. On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
Analyst comment: Prediction markets once again demonstrate high sensitivity to group stage results. Spain's draw with Cape Verde is a classic example of how one match can reshape the entire favorites table. However, I wouldn't write off the Spanish: their squad depth and experience allow for quick adaptation. France, for now, looks the most balanced, but the density in the top five is such that any slip-up could cost them the lead.