Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: seller pressure and macroeconomic backdrop
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, holding below the $66,000 mark. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks in the energy sector, failed to become a catalyst for growth. The main factor holding back bitcoin remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Analysts at QCP Capital point out that the company may need to liquidate part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. Paradoxically, Strategy's aggressive equity issuance, aimed at increasing growth potential, could ultimately work against the BTC price by creating additional supply in the market.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic picture is gradually stabilizing, which is a positive signal for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Against this backdrop, indicators of short-term holder behavior do not show panic.
According to data from the COINDREAM (CryptoQuant) team, the SOPR indicator for short-term investors is currently at 0.995. This indicates minor but not critical losses. The key "panic threshold" is located at the 0.95 level. The current structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full-scale capitulation. A return of the indicator to 1.0 would confirm an improvement in sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would be an alarming signal.
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more tense. Selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. The short-term closure of this gap at the beginning of 2025 turned out to be a false signal — the indicator has sharply reversed again and continues to decline.
My analysis: Bitcoin's consolidation is a game of nerves. On one hand, we see classic accumulation and an absence of panic among hodlers. On the other hand, the sword of Damocles of potential sales by the largest corporate holder hangs over the market. Until this imbalance is resolved, expecting a breakout above $70,000 is premature. Investors should monitor Strategy's actions as a key trigger.