France leads the Polymarket race for the 2026 World Cup: Spain loses ground after a sensational draw
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the leader for bets on the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The French national team surged ahead, capitalizing on an unexpected stumble by the main favorite — Spain, which failed to beat tournament debutants Cape Verde, drawing 0-0.
Before the first round of matches, Spain confidently held the top spot in the rankings. However, the goalless draw with the underdog instantly changed the balance of power on the platform. Traders quickly reacted to the disappointing result, and the French team seized the initiative.
How the odds changed
Currently, 18.4% of all bets are placed on France winning the tournament. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly increased over the past day and has firmly secured first place.
Spain has dropped to second position with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, confirming the enormous interest in the tournament.
Why Spain lost ground
Spain's draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds. However, the market has only cooled towards Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and their captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
My expert opinion: The Polymarket market once again demonstrates high sensitivity to real sporting events. Spain's fall after a single draw is more of an emotional correction than a fundamental shift. However, the density at the top of the table suggests that the fight for the title will be extremely intense, and each subsequent round could bring new surprises for traders.