Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calmness of short-term holders
Despite the recent agreement between the U.S. and Iran somewhat reducing geopolitical risks for global energy markets, Bitcoin continues to trade below the $66,000 mark. The main factor restraining growth remains concerns about potential new sales from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company, known for its massive BTC accumulation, may be forced to sell part of its reserve to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that Strategy's strategy of continuously issuing shares to increase its growth potential, which previously fueled optimism, could now work against the market. The more the company expands its balance sheet, the greater the pressure from potential sales becomes.
Short-term holders remain calm
Meanwhile, data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term Bitcoin holders (STH) are not panicking. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category of investors is at ~0.995. This suggests that current losses are minimal and have not escalated into mass capitulation. The key "panic threshold" is at 0.95, and the market is still holding above it.
The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full-blown collapse. If SOPR returns to the 1 level, it will confirm an improvement in sentiment. However, a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal, indicating rising panic among speculators.
Altcoins under pressure: seller pressure at five-year high
Against the backdrop of relative Bitcoin stability, altcoins are facing tough times. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. This indicator briefly approached zero in early 2025 but then sharply reversed downward and continues to fall, reaching a five-year extreme.
My comment: The market is currently at a bifurcation point. On one hand, we see a classic "bear trap" for altcoins, where extreme seller pressure often precedes a reversal. On the other hand, Bitcoin is staying afloat only thanks to institutional demand and the absence of panic among short-term holders. If Strategy indeed starts large-scale sales, it could trigger a correction, but in the long term, consolidation below $66,000 looks like accumulation before the next surge.