Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and macroeconomic backdrop
The first cryptocurrency continues to consolidate near the $66,000 mark, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran. However, in my analysis, the main brake on BTC's growth remains concerns about potential large-scale sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. Paradoxically, Strategy's aggressive share issuance, aimed at increasing growth potential, could ultimately work against the market by creating additional supply.
Short-term holders remain calm
Data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term investors are not yet panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. The key point: the indicator remains above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 mark would be a bullish signal, while a break below 0.95 would be a trigger for intensified selling.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
Against the backdrop of relative stability in bitcoin, the altcoin market is experiencing serious stress. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded a five-year high in selling pressure. The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, this indicator nearly reached zero, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to fall.
My professional view: The market is going through a classic phase of capital redistribution. Investors are taking profits in altcoins and shifting into bitcoin, expecting its further growth. However, the main intrigue now is the actions of Strategy. If the company begins active selling, it could trigger a correction, which would become an excellent entry point for long-term investors focused on the next bullish cycle.