Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calmness of short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways dynamics, holding below the $66,000 mark. Despite the positive macroeconomic backdrop associated with reduced geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, the bullish momentum is being held back by a number of internal factors. The key one is the ongoing threat of additional bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Concerns about Strategy
Analysts at QCP Capital note that the company may be forced to sell part of its cryptocurrency reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. Although Strategy continues to issue shares and expand its potential, this optimism could ultimately work against bitcoin, creating additional downward pressure on the price.
Short-term holders: stability without panic
In parallel, data from CryptoQuant by the COINDREAM team shows that short-term holders (STH) remain calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is at 0.995, indicating minor losses but far from the panic zone. The current situation resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. Key levels to watch: a return to the 1.0 mark will confirm improved sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be a warning signal.
Altcoins under pressure
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the altcoin market is going through tough times. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. An attempted recovery in early 2025 was quickly suppressed, and the indicator has been steadily declining since then.
My expert opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a phase of accumulation before the next major move. However, the key risk remains Strategy's behavior, which could trigger a local supply shock. Investors should closely monitor the company's actions, as even short-term sales could create a favorable opportunity to enter the market at attractive prices.