France surges to the lead in the 2026 World Cup on Polymarket: the prediction market reshuffles favorites after Spain's sensational draw
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the balance of power in the race for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team, with 18.4% of bets, has taken the lead, pushing Spain aside after their chances collapsed following an unexpected goalless draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the opening round, Spain confidently led the favorites' ranking. However, the goalless draw with the underdog instantly changed traders' sentiment. The contract for a French victory is currently trading at $0.185, corresponding to an 18.4% probability. Spain, having lost about three percentage points in a day, has dropped to second place with 13% ($0.134).
A Tight Top Five Contenders
Argentina rounds out the top three with 11% ($0.116), while England and Portugal share fourth and fifth places with figures around 10% ($0.104 and $0.103, respectively). The total volume of the betting market on the tournament winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, indicating enormous interest in the championship and high platform liquidity.
Notably, despite losing ground, Spain has not been ruled out as a major contender. The market has merely cooled on them but has not written them off—the team remains in the upper group of favorites and retains every chance to restore its ranking in the remaining group stage matches.
Ronaldo's Debut and Matches of the Day
The central event on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is valued at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia, where the British are considered favorites with odds of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians seen as clear favorites with a contract at $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is likely to be the last of his career, which adds special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
Expert opinion: Prediction markets like Polymarket are becoming increasingly sensitive barometers of public sentiment and react instantly to sports sensations. The drop in Spain's odds after the draw with Cape Verde is a classic example of how a single match can reshape the entire hierarchy of favorites. However, the Spanish should not be counted out: in the group stage, everything can change at any moment, and the current figures are merely a snapshot of traders' emotions, not a final verdict.