Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show consolidation, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran. The main factor keeping bitcoin below the $66,000 mark remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my data, the company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the buyback of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion with a maturity date in 2029. As I believe, if Strategy continues to actively issue shares and increase its potential, this could backfire on bitcoin, increasing pressure on the price.
However, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets. At the same time, I note that short-term holders remain calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors is near 0.995, indicating minimal losses and an absence of panic sentiment.
Analysis of short-term holder behavior
The indicator remains above the critical level of 0.95, which I consider the "panic threshold." The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to 1 would confirm an improvement in sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of increased risk of mass sell-offs.
Pressure on altcoins reaches extremes
Against the backdrop of relative stability in bitcoin, the situation in the altcoin market looks much more tense. Selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. After a brief recovery to the zero level in early 2025, the indicator sharply reversed and continues to steadily decline.
My professional opinion: The market is undergoing a period of structural restructuring. Bitcoin, despite external pressure, is showing resilience, but long-term investors should be prepared for volatility. Altcoins, on the other hand, are in a high-risk zone, and the current sales dynamics may indicate a shift in priorities among major players in favor of the first cryptocurrency.