France has taken the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner have shifted dramatically.
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team now holds the top spot, displacing Spain after its unexpected goalless draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the opening round, Spain was confidently leading the odds. However, the goalless draw with a team considered an underdog instantly changed traders' sentiments. The market, sensitive to results, reassessed the chances of "La Roja," and France seized the moment to top the ranking.
How the bets on the champion have changed
According to Polymarket data, the probability of France winning is estimated at 18.4%, with the contract for their championship trading at $0.185. The team has steadily gained over the past day and solidified its position at the top.
Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five, also at around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, highlighting the enormous interest in the tournament.
Why Spain lost ground
The draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds. Nevertheless, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains a chance to improve their position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen its position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five.
Analyst's comment: Prediction markets like Polymarket show high sensitivity to live event results. Spain's sharp decline after the draw is a classic example of how one match can reshape the entire favorite landscape. Nevertheless, it is too early to write off the Spanish: the density of odds in the top five suggests that the fight for the title will be extremely intense, and we will likely see several more leadership changes before the final.