Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and market signals
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to demonstrate enviable resilience to external macroeconomic shocks, but stubbornly refuses to grow above the key level of $66,000. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced geopolitical risks in the energy sector, did not become a catalyst for bitcoin. The main reason is lingering concerns about potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my data, the company may be forced to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Strategy continues to actively issue shares and increase its potential, but such optimism could ultimately work against the BTC price. If the company begins mass sales, it will put serious pressure on the market.
Calmness of Short-Term Holders
Despite the uncertainty, short-term investors (STH) remain calm. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category is currently at 0.995, signaling only minor losses. The metric is holding firmly above the "panic threshold" — the 0.95 level. The current structure indicates a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation. A return to the 1.0 mark will confirm improved sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year High in Selling
Against the backdrop of relative bitcoin stability, the situation in the altcoin market looks much more alarming. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly closed at the zero level, but then sharply reversed and has been declining ever since.
This indicates that capital is actively flowing out of altcoins, and investors prefer to lock in losses or shift into more liquid assets. While bitcoin holds steady, altcoins are experiencing a miniature "crypto winter."
My expert opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather an accumulation phase before the next major move. However, the key risk remains Strategy's behavior. If the company decides to sell, we could see a sharp drop to $60,000 and below. For now, the market is frozen in anticipation of a trigger — whether it be a positive macroeconomic signal or news from the largest corporate BTC holder.